You may have noticed a growing disconnect between the Guides and what is going on outside your window.  I certainly have.  We Canadians think of ourselves as a tough bunch, but I know few people who aren’t hoping, or searching, for signs of the coming spring.  I’ve seen rather more crows, heard a woodpecker drumming the other day, and have noticed that some of the willow trees are greening up.  I went looking for pussy willows, but could only find a few swelling buds.  I’m still on the lookout for Robins, but I hear that they are in the area.  Open water is beginning to collect migratory waterfowl, but that is limited mostly to running water.

Well, folks, we’ve been spoiled.  Mild winters and early springs (’07, ’10 and ’12 come to mind) have become more the norm than the exception.  On a broader scale, about 2/3’s of species studied, world-wide, have shown trends toward earlier blooming, breeding and migrating since 1900.  Species have also been moving in order to maintain their climatic niche, or ‘sweet spot’ -- again since 1900, about half of species studied have moved to higher latitudes or elevations (30 to 995 miles poleward; 1300 ft. higher).  These effects of global warming (GW) have not been entirely benign, however.  With a general warming trend have also come extreme fluctuations, and often those early springs are punctuated with cold snaps -- freezes that have killed early buds and blooms and lead to crop losses across North America. 

This ‘winter of our discontent’ can be seen as part of the larger fluctuations, or ‘climate chaos’ (scroll down) predicted by GW models.  While no single season can be taken as a trend, a possible cause of frequent visitations by the dreaded ‘polar vortex’ is a breakdown in the temperature differential between high Arctic/polar air and the continental air mass below it as the arctic air heats up faster, resulting in large dips and swings in the Jet Stream.  And while some areas have seen great fluctuations in temperatures and some warmer than normal periods, much of Canada has been largely in the deep freeze. 

This is not altogether a bad thing.  The later spring comes, the less are the chances of a significant killing frost.  A later spring has other implications.  Keep an eye out for:

• a delay in blooming patterns, which can be several weeks.
• if the spring weather remains cool, blooms may be slower to mature and more long-lasting (rule of thumb:  for every 10 C change in temperature, processes tend to speed or slow by a factor of two).
• a compression in blooming patterns, with overlaps in species which normally are sequential.
• a delay in owl breeding where the snow is late to melt and reveal their rodent meals.
• higher levels in the Great Lakes, where low levels have been a recent concern.  Near record ice cover has reduced the amount of evaporation, and additional runoff from a greater than normal snowmelt should help raise levels.
• a greater chance of winterkill in lakes that hold ice longer than normal, as the oxygen gets used up in advance of the spring turnover.
• a reduction in the density or advance of some invasive insect pests, such as the Emerald Ash Borer or pine bark beetles, which may suffer winter kill due to extremely low temperatures (unfortunately, so may their predators/parasites).
• delayed migrations, such as Monarch Butterflies, which may be held up by a delay in milkweed production across the United States.  Track the growth of milkweed here.
• with a later snowmelt, greater problems among all active animals in finding food.  If you have maintained feeders all winter, please do not stop now.
• a heavier snowmelt, which may increase the time that ephemeral ponds may last, and increase the breeding potential of amphibians that use them.
• the events in the guides that have yet to occur in your area, and how long they were delayed.  Consider setting up a calendar of natural events for your location (called a phenology), and track it from year to year, e.g. first and last frost; iceover and melt; Monarchs arrival and departure; first and last Robin, etc.

What can we expect now, weather-wise?  According to The Weather Network, after the cold start to March that we have seen, temperatures in Ontario through May are expected to be below normal across most of the north, and near normal for the rest of the province.  We can only hope.